Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · prediction market · Open · resolves Oct 4, 2026
No52%
Yes49%
25 · Strong sell signal

Whale money here is backing Yes$209K from 18 tracked whales.

Total volume
$10.8M
Liquidity
$234K
Whale volume
$600K
Whales tracked
36
Whale trades
62
Whale buy pressure
38%
Probability — No 52%now
63%45%28%
Aug 12 High 58% · Low 34% Sep 12
About this market
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral...