Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Other · prediction market · Open · resolves Oct 1, 2026
No99%
Yes1%

Whale money here is backing No$90K from 10 tracked whales.

Total volume
$2.1M
Liquidity
$231K
Whale volume
$122K
Whales tracked
14
Whale trades
18
Whale buy pressure
74%
Probability — No 99%now
100%98%96%
Aug 12 High 99% · Low 98% Sep 12
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran....