Smart moneyTrader profile
Win rate
46%
49W · 57L settled
Profit & loss
−$22K
-96% ROI
Betting now
7
open positions
Total traded
$19K
2 large trades
Recent results newest first
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Betting on now 7
W Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
$465
+$241
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
$393
−$137
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
$238
−$159
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
$104
−$64
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
$5
+$2
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
$2
+$1
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
$1
+$0
If you’d copied Rumpelstiltskin
Betting a flat $100 on their last 50 settled bets:
+$1,600 (+32% on $5,000 staked)
Best bet +$100Worst bet −$100
Based on the settled positions we track, using each bet’s real cash P&L. Ignores fees and slippage. Past results don’t predict future ones — this is information, not advice.
Biggest settled results
WON
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
+$16K
WON
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
+$14K
WON
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
+$13K
WON
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
+$9K
LOST
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
−$8K
WON
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
+$4K
LOST
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?
−$4K
WON
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
+$4K
WON
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
+$2K
WON
Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?
+$2K
LOST
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
−$2K
WON
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
+$2K
WON
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
+$2K
WON
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
+$2K