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probability Whale
0x74f1…16a8
Active since Jul 15, 2026 · last trade 1 week ago
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Win rate
58%
34W · 25L settled
Profit & loss
−$85K
-41% ROI
Betting now
195
open positions
Total traded
$379K
31 large trades
Recent results newest first
W W W W L L L L L W W W W W
Betting on now 195
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Nobought 50¢ → 88¢
$31K
+$13K
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Yesbought 50¢ → 13¢
$18K
−$13K
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%?
Yesbought 49¢ → 0¢
$5K
−$5K
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 2–3%?
Yesbought 50¢ → 0¢
$4K
−$4K
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Nobought 50¢ → 39¢
$2K
−$528
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Nobought 91¢ → 95¢
$2K
+$86
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 3–4%?
Yesbought 50¢ → 0¢
$2K
−$2K
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Nobought 95¢ → 98¢
$2K
+$49
If you’d copied probability

Betting a flat $100 on their last 50 settled bets:

−$950 (-19% on $5,000 staked)
Best bet +$100Worst bet −$100

Based on the settled positions we track, using each bet’s real cash P&L. Ignores fees and slippage. Past results don’t predict future ones — this is information, not advice.

Biggest settled results
WON Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%? +$5K LOST Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%? −$5K LOST Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 4–5%? −$4K LOST Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%? −$4K LOST Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 2–3%? −$4K LOST Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 4–5%? −$4K LOST Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–6%? −$4K LOST Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–6%? −$3K LOST Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 6%? −$3K WON Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? +$2K LOST Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? −$2K LOST Will Mandela Barnes win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? −$1K LOST Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 20–25%? −$1K LOST Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%? −$971