Smart moneyTrader profile
Win rate
35%
27W · 51L settled
Profit & loss
−$930K
-57% ROI
Betting now
13
open positions
Total traded
$1.6M
42 large trades
Recent results newest first
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Betting on now 13
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$267K
+$55K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
$228K
+$18K
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$72K
+$5K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
$57K
+$6K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
$26K
−$2K
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
$25K
+$3K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
$14K
−$12K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$9K
+$427
If you’d copied Erasmus.
Betting a flat $100 on their last 50 settled bets:
+$400 (+8% on $5,000 staked)
Best bet +$100Worst bet −$100
Based on the settled positions we track, using each bet’s real cash P&L. Ignores fees and slippage. Past results don’t predict future ones — this is information, not advice.
Biggest settled results
WON
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
+$768K
WON
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
+$690K
LOST
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
−$378K
WON
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
+$349K
WON
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
+$184K
LOST
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
−$177K
WON
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
+$164K
LOST
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
−$88K
WON
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
+$67K
LOST
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
−$56K
LOST
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
−$55K
WON
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
+$52K
LOST
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
−$51K
WON
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
+$50K