WON Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? +$251K LOST Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? −$61K WON Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? +$60K WON Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? +$50K WON Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? +$41K WON Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? +$38K WON Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? +$18K WON Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? +$16K WON Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? +$7K LOST Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? −$5K LOST Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? −$4K WON Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? +$4K WON Will John Stevens get second place in the Clacton by-election? +$1K WON Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? +$1K