Iran leadership change by December 31?
Politics · prediction market · Open · resolves Jan 1, 2027
No86%
Yes15%

Whale money here is backing No$205K from 14 tracked whales.

Total volume
$4.5M
Liquidity
$206K
Whale volume
$322K
Whales tracked
22
Whale trades
31
Whale buy pressure
64%
Probability — No 86%now
89%84%80%
Aug 12 High 87% · Low 82% Sep 11
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of w...