WON Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026? +$527 WON Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m? +$494 LOST Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? −$415 WON Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? +$246 WON Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding? +$135 WON Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026? +$130 WON Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? +$108 LOST Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? −$107 WON Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026? +$85 LOST Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? −$84 LOST Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? −$65 LOST Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? −$54 LOST Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? −$33 LOST US strike on Colombia by December 31? −$33