Smart moneyTrader profile
Win rate
50%
11W · 11L settled
Profit & loss
−$121K
-33% ROI
Betting now
23
open positions
Total traded
$237K
16 large trades
Recent results newest first
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Betting on now 23
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
$43K
−$38K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$35K
−$11K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$31K
+$4K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$31K
+$1K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
$23K
+$3K
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$21K
+$9K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
$18K
−$1K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$17K
−$7K
If you’d copied Arbguy
Betting a flat $100 on their last 22 settled bets:
+$34 (+2% on $2,200 staked)
Best bet +$100Worst bet −$100
Based on the settled positions we track, using each bet’s real cash P&L. Ignores fees and slippage. Past results don’t predict future ones — this is information, not advice.
Biggest settled results
WON
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
+$105K
LOST
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
−$41K
WON
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
+$40K
WON
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
+$36K
WON
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?
+$35K
WON
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
+$29K
WON
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
+$13K
LOST
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
−$7K
LOST
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
−$6K
LOST
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
−$6K
WON
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?
+$3K
LOST
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
−$2K
LOST
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
−$2K
WON
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
+$1K